Democrats Should Be Wary of Underestimating Trump’s Danger: If there is one thing that the midterm elections have demonstrated to the Democrats, it is that the Republicans continue to be a party that is strongly united. This is one thing that the Democrats can take away from these elections.
What Do People Think About Trump’s Potential Threat?
Trump may run for president again. Donald Trump advised his fans Thursday to “get ready” for his return to the campaign trail, and top advisers are targeting November 14 as a potential launch date, CNN sources said. Trump hopes to become the first non-consecutive winner since Grover Cleveland.
Trump has been hinting at another run for months, but the revelation would be shocking. Trump is a contentious and unstable US politician. His presidency was tremendously momentous, as we’ve seen with recent Supreme Court rulings like Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and the GOP’s caustic language and support for conspiracy theories.
While many Americans breathed a sigh of relief when Joe Biden won 2020, some Democrats may view Trump’s reemergence as good news. Biden, who has declared he “intends” to run again, looks to have Trump beat. Powerful contrast: a stable, experienced, low-key political leader. Trump’s campaigning would certainly unite Democrats behind Biden and help the President collect funding.
Democrats shouldn’t underrate Trump’s threat.
The midterms showed Democrats that the GOP is unified. This togetherness is unbreakable. After Trump departed office, the party didn’t shift significantly, and “Never Trump” didn’t become a dominating movement. Liz Cheney was expelled from the party.
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Even with problematic candidates like Herschel Walker and Dr. Mehmet Oz running for important Senate seats, surveys suggest the GOP is in strong condition heading into Tuesday’s midterms. Democrats are scrambling to protect key seats, including in historically blue areas like New York.
If Republicans perform well next week and retake the House and Senate, they’ll feel good ramping up cultural conflicts and economic talking points in 2024. Given the amount of election-denying candidates in the midterms, a strong showing might help the GOP coalesce around Trump.
Although there has been much speculation about the ascent of Trump-like Republicans like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, they will likely appear “liddle” once the former President actually reenters politics, as his fierce opponents learned in the 2016 Republican primary.
A GOP triumph will encourage Trump. He’s mostly dodged responsibility. Trump is still a viable political figure despite criminal investigations and a House select committee probe on January 6.
If Trump declares his candidacy, the DOJ is considering appointing a special counsel to oversee two federal investigations into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his alleged mishandling of national security materials at Mar-a-Lago. Trump has attacked former special counsel Robert Mueller, who supervised the Russia probe, repeatedly.
Prosecuting Trump will be harder once he’s a contender. Trump, a master at playing the victim, would allege (as he has before) that any inquiry is a politically motivated “witch hunt” to remove him from the race.
If Trump avoids prosecution, he’ll definitely attack the President, who may be dealing with a troubled economy and party divides. If election deniers gain power after the elections and Trump escapes punishment for January 6, he may use followers who have penetrated state and local election offices to ensure his triumph.
Scoop: Former President Trump’s inner circle is discussing announcing the launch of a 2024 presidential campaign on Nov. 14 — with the official announcement possibly followed by a multi-day series of political events. https://t.co/6FsXAjrMsa
— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 4, 2022
Trump will also be able to improve the method and words that got him elected in 2016. Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter gives Trump a tool to dominate the media narrative again. (Trump, who launched Truth Social after being banned from Twitter, hasn’t said if he’ll return.)
A midterm triumph would also invigorate Republican voters. Out-parties are frequently more motivated and prepared for political warfare than incumbent parties, which are worn down by governing.
In 2024, Biden will be as important as Trump. Biden may boast a solid legislative record, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure plan, but he will enter 2024 with incumbent baggage. Inflation and the exit from Afghanistan will be discussed more than four years ago. If Biden runs, he’s already the ruler.
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Midterms illustrate that Democrats’ focus on the GOP’s radicalism and democracy’s risks isn’t enough to rouse voters. These concerns have been mentioned numerous times, including in Biden’s Wednesday speech, yet Democrats are still grappling.
Trump’s threat in 2024 doesn’t indicate he’ll win. Trump has turned off many independents and some Republicans by 2020, and he may not recover their support in battleground states. Presidents who endure challenging reelection campaigns may nonetheless win, as President Obama showed in 2012.